Book a Tour
Benchmarks
Definitions
Glossary of Recovery Measurement Terms The Four Outcomes of a Recovery Campaign Daily Cohorts and Complete Cohorts Recovery Rate: the Formula
Fundamentals
Failure Reasons Recovery Campaigns Campaign Length and Churn Recognition What Moves a Recovery Rate
Analyze
Active vs Passive Churn Rolling Analysis Natural Variance Comparing Recovery Rates Across Periods, Tools, and Migrations Practices This Methodology Rejects
Cancel Flows
Two Measurement Frames: Dunning vs Cancel Flows Save Rate
Benchmarks
Realistic Recovery Rate Range Proving a Lift
Learn  /  Benchmarks

Realistic Recovery Rate Range

Across Churn Buster customers, the median count-based dunning recovery rate is around 50% and top performers reach 80%+. Why accounts vary, and how to place yours.

This page is about dunning recovery, the campaign that starts when a subscription payment fails. It gives no benchmark for cancel flow save rates; see Save Rate.

Prerequisites: Read Recovery Rate: the Formula first. A benchmark is only comparable to your number when both use the same method, with complete cohorts, every outcome counted, and the same weighting. Natural Variance explains the band this page leans on.

Complete cohorts. Every outcome counted.

There is no single Churn Buster recovery rate. Each account sits somewhere on a range.

The range

Across the customer base, the median is around 50%. Top performers reach 80% or higher. These are patterns, not promises.

Both figures are count-based. Specific accounts sit anywhere on this distribution, sometimes outside it.

Why it's a range, not a number

Six things move a recovery rate for reasons that have nothing to do with the recovery process:

  • Sample size. Fewer failed payments means a wider swing from one window to the next.
  • Seasonality. Holidays, promotions, and surges in new subscribers show up in recovery months later.
  • Price points. Customers on lower prices can be more likely to churn.
  • Billing cycles. Annual and quarterly renewals fail and churn differently from monthly ones.
  • Customer acquisition. Deep discount and unintentional signups churn more.
  • Service quality. Product, support, and onboarding set how much customers want to stay.

Each one has a full treatment on What Moves a Recovery Rate.

Customer mix is the main engine. Two of the four outcomes depend on a customer choosing to act, so recovery rate is partly a loyalty measurement. Two similar coffee subscription companies can run an identical recovery process and post 20% and 80%. The full argument is on What Moves a Recovery Rate.

Different businesses, different maximums

A high churn consumer business may top out around 40% no matter how good the process is. A low churn service may reach 80% or higher. Who the customers are, and whether they want to stay, sets most of that difference.

Which number you're comparing

Count-based and dollar-weighted rates can differ for the same account. Count-based weights every campaign equally, which isolates dunning performance from price point shifts. Dollar-weighted is dollars recovered over dollars at risk, the lens for business decisions and headline reporting.

Before comparing your number to any range, know which one you're looking at. Recovery Rate: the Formula defines both.

Your band beats any external range

The most useful benchmark is your account's band. A typical account swings 20-30 points between its best and worst rolling window over a multi-year history.

A bad week inside the band isn't a crisis. A good week inside the band isn't a victory. A move outside it, sustained across several rolling windows, is a signal.

An external range tells you roughly where you sit. Your band tells you whether anything changed. The method is on Natural Variance.

Placing your account on the range

  1. Use the same formula. Complete cohorts, all four outcomes, voided campaigns excluded. See the formula.
  2. Wait for 30+ days of completed cohorts before judging your performance (How long to wait).
  3. Match the weighting. Compare the range to your count-based rate.
  4. Segment before you conclude. A surge of first renewal customers pulls the blended rate down with no process change. The method is on Natural Variance.

Don't measure it this way

  • Quoting a single recovery rate, ours or any vendor's, as if it were one number. Report the range.
  • Comparing your rate to a range computed another way. A range that excludes cancellations, drops in-progress campaigns, or uses the other weighting isn't comparable to yours.
  • Treating a single top account's result as a benchmark. One account is one point on the distribution.
  • Concluding your process is broken because your blended rate sits below the median. Segment first. The mix may explain the gap.

The full list is on Practices This Methodology Rejects.

Prerequisites: Recovery Rate: the Formula; Natural Variance.

Next: Proving a Lift, for testing whether a change moved your rate.